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WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Q3 Earnings Should Be Fine, but Expectations Beyond This Quarter Are High | Weekly Market Commentary | October 21, 2024

Q3 Earnings Should Be Fine, but Expectations Beyond This Quarter Are High | Weekly Market Commentary | October 21, 2024

The S&P 500 consensus earnings growth number of 3% for the third quarter is not something to write home about, especially after double-digit earnings growth in the second quarter. The soft number is partly due to a tougher comparison. In Q2 2024, earnings had an easier comparison with a 3.3% drop in earnings in the prior-year quarter (Q2 2023 vs. Q2 2022). For the third quarter now being reported, the comparison gets tougher as earnings growth in Q3 2023 was over 5% (vs. Q2 2022).

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Happy Two-Year B-Day Bull Market – Here’s to a Third! | Weekly Market Commentary | October 14, 2024

Happy Two-Year B-Day Bull Market – Here’s to a Third! | Weekly Market Commentary | October 14, 2024

The October 13 rally that ended the bear market at a low of 3,577.03 began with the S&P 500 selling off in the morning only to rally dramatically higher into the market close. The CPI report earlier in the day showed headline inflation at 8.2% on a year-over-year basis, but Core CPI ─ not including food and fuel prices ─ beat the consensus estimate at 6.6%. The S&P 500 closed at 3,669.91 and the bull market had commenced.

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Gold Rally Is No Flash in the Pan | Weekly Market Commentary | September 30, 2024

Gold Rally Is No Flash in the Pan | Weekly Market Commentary | September 30, 2024

When it comes to investing, gold may be the antithesis of artificial intelligence (AI). The precious metal has acted as a store of value for thousands of years with zero technological innovation — gold is discovered, not developed. Gold is also a real tangible asset and can act as a potential hedge against inflation or a safe haven during times of crisis.

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Policy Crosscurrents: Potential Market Impacts | Weekly Market Commentary | September 23, 2024

Policy Crosscurrents: Potential Market Impacts | Weekly Market Commentary | September 23, 2024

Of course, last week’s headliner was Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates by a half percent on Wednesday, September 18, the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2020. The Fed “pause” ended at 423 days and now stands as the second-longest on record, while the 26% gain for the S&P 500 during the pause (7/27/23–9/18/24) ranks first. Here we share some thoughts on the Fed’s move last week and some potential market implications of not only Fed policy but also fiscal policy post-election.

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