Investors use various analogies to describe the importance of small businesses in the domestic economy. Some refer to the small business sector as the backbone or the lifeblood of the economy. At this current stage of the cycle, we could say there are rising risks of an acute backache or a draining of that lifeblood. In this edition of the Weekly Market Commentary, we discuss the weakness in small businesses and what that foreshadows in the markets and the economy.
Weekly Market Commentary
A Closer Look at Commercial Real Estate | Weekly Market Commentary | April 17, 2023
The commercial real estate (CRE) market has recently captured the spotlight after being flagged as the next potential shoe to drop following last month’s banking turmoil. While rising rates have weighed on financing costs and the recent bank failures will make lending more restrictive, the post-pandemic world has produced structural changes that will likely weigh on the sector, especially within the retail and office segments. Banks, especially smaller cap regionals, are most exposed to CRE if credit cracks continue to widen.
Earnings Preview-Malaise Continues | Weekly Market Commentary | April 10, 2023
First quarter earnings season kicks off this week with some big banks reporting toward the end of the week. In some ways this quarter’s earnings season will probably be déjà vu all over again—earnings declines and cautious guidance, reductions in estimates, but better than feared.
Who is Right, Fed or Markets? | Weekly Market Commentary | April 3, 2023
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has reiterated its plan to raise rates at least one more time and keep rates elevated for the rest of 2023.
The 36-Hour SVB Collapse and Hierarchy of Blame | Weekly Market Commentary | March 27, 2023
The rapid collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), followed by continued pressure on regional banks, along with headlines surrounding the struggle to shore up confidence in First Republic Bank (FRC), has the market on alert for other potentially vulnerable banks.
Wading Through Financal Stability Risks an Action Plan | Weekly Market Commentary | March 20, 2023
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has a history of raising short-term interest rates until something “breaks.” Considering the Fed has raised rates from a near-zero level to 4.75% (upper bound) over the course of only one year, it was almost a near certainty this time would be no different.
Latest Equity Asset Alocation Views | Weekly Market Commentary | March 13, 2023
Coming into the week, it was all about Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony and the February jobs report. Instead, we got a shockingly fast collapse of a financial institution with over $200 billion in assets, which turned the market’s focus toward the stability of the banking system and what systemic risks banks might be facing. This commentary is focused on our asset allocation views, but no doubt the Silicon Valley Bank saga will require more attention from investors in the days ahead.
No Landing = No Sense | Weekly Market Commentary | March 6, 2023
LPL Research looks at some factors that illustrate how the economy is struggling to find a stable growth path.
Debt Ceiling Primer | Weekly Market Commentary | February 27, 2023
While concerns about the debt ceiling have been increasing, markets, businesses, and the economy are likely to see only minimal impact until we are days, or maybe a few weeks, from the “x date,” the date on which the federal government will no longer be able to meet all its obligations, likely in the summer or early fall.
What’s Changed and What It Could Mean | Weekly Market Commentary | February 21, 2023
Market relationships to interest rates have been turned upside down. And many of last year’s losers are this year’s winners, and vice versa. Here we take a look at some of the biggest changes in the market environment so far in 2023 and what those changes could mean for investors over the balance of the year.